Norway supported 2015 China Carbon Pricing Survey

The 2015 China Carbon Pricing Survey was launched 8 Sept. at the UN Compound in Beijing followed by a launch at the Norwegian Environment Agency 11 Sept. in Oslo. The survey, which is supported by the Norwegian Embassy in Beijing, elicited expectations about the future of China’s carbon price from 304 China-based stakeholders.


The report comes at a crucial time as 2015 is the year of UNFCCC COP 21 in Paris. Both Norway and China have set ambitious goals of reducing their emissions in the years to come. The Chinese government has committed to reduce the nation’s carbon intensity of the economy by 40 to 45 percent from 2005 levels by 2020, and by 60 to 65 per cent by 2030. Most recently during his visit to the United States, President Xi Jinping confirmed that China plan to launch a national Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) in 2017.

The study was carried out by a team of researchers from China Carbon Forum (CCF) and ICF International from late May to early July 2015, More than 300 China-based stakeholders were surveyed on their expectations for the national Emission Trading Scheme (ETS), which the Chinese government has announced will be launched in early 2017. The survey is a collective “best guess” by these stakeholders. It does not claim to be representative, but provides a clear indication of dominant stakeholders’ views of the future of carbon pricing in China. This information will be useful for China when planning the future national emissions trading scheme.

The results of the survey give strong confidence that carbon price levels in China will rise over time, and that carbon pricing will increasingly affect the investment decisions of companies covered by a future national ETS in China. Many respondents expect that it could take until 2020 or so before the national ETS is fully functional across mainland China. The expectation is that in the coming ten years, China’s mix of policy instruments to control carbon emissions will markedly shift towards carbon trading, tax, and information disclosure. Furthermore, the survey indicates a strong confidence that China will meet its target to peak emissions by 2030. Many expect that the peak in emissions will be reached significantly earlier.

The Norwegian Environment Agency had a consultative role throughout the writing process. The Royal Norwegian Embassy, the British Embassy and the Energy Foundation China provided financial support for the project. The project builds on the 2013 China Carbon Pricing Survey.

The report can be downloaded in Chinese or English versions at

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